The Line Lab
Which trios actually work when they're on the ice together. We compare what a line shouldproduce given who's on it against what it actually produces — the difference is chemistry. Every unit below really played together at 5-on-5; nothing is hypothetical.
How to read this
Nothing here is invented: every line and pair below actually played together at 5-on-5, with real minutes attached. For each unit we show its observed — the slice of scoring chances it controlled while on the ice, where 50% means break-even.
The interesting part is the split. We first compute an : what those players should produce together if a line were just the sum of its parts. Whatever the real unit does beyond that is the — the closest a spreadsheet gets to measuring whether three players actually fit. Small-minute units are noisy, so read a big bonus on 30 minutes as a hypothesis, not a verdict — and remember this is a model estimate, not the coach's lineup card.
- BASE
- what the unit “should” produce — its members' individual profiles, added up
- CHEM
- observed share minus base: the whole vs. the sum of the parts
- PROJ
- base + chem — the model's expectation if the unit stays together
- TICK
- the hairline on each bar marks 50% — the break-even line
- Lines recovered from MoneyPuck lines.csv (5on5, observed deployment); chemistry = observed xG% minus additive archetype base. Model-estimated.
- 01Sam Bennett – Matthew Tkachuk – Mackie SamoskevichTogether this unit controls play outright — 59% of expected goals, about what the talent on it predicts.74 min together 57 +2 → proj 5959.0%· obs.
- 02Carter Verhaeghe – Sam Reinhart – Evan RodriguesTogether this unit controls play outright — 57% of expected goals, 8 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.193 min together 49 +8 → proj 5757.0%· obs.
- 03Brad Marchand – Eetu Luostarinen – Anton LundellTogether this unit spends the night chasing — 47% of expected goals, about what the talent on it predicts.174 min together 49 -2 → proj 4747.0%· obs.
- 01Seth Jones – Niko MikkolaTogether this unit tilts the ice — 53% of expected goals, 25 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.575 min together 28 +25 → proj 5353.0%· obs.
- 02Aaron Ekblad – Gustav ForslingTogether this unit plays about even — 51% of expected goals, 23 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.1048 min together 28 +23 → proj 5151.0%· obs.
- 03Mike Benning – Donovan SebrangoTogether this unit gets buried territorially — 37% of expected goals, 15 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.94 min together 22 +15 → proj 3737.0%· obs.