The Line Lab
Which trios actually work when they're on the ice together. We compare what a line shouldproduce given who's on it against what it actually produces — the difference is chemistry. Every unit below really played together at 5-on-5; nothing is hypothetical.
How to read this
Nothing here is invented: every line and pair below actually played together at 5-on-5, with real minutes attached. For each unit we show its observed — the slice of scoring chances it controlled while on the ice, where 50% means break-even.
The interesting part is the split. We first compute an : what those players should produce together if a line were just the sum of its parts. Whatever the real unit does beyond that is the — the closest a spreadsheet gets to measuring whether three players actually fit. Small-minute units are noisy, so read a big bonus on 30 minutes as a hypothesis, not a verdict — and remember this is a model estimate, not the coach's lineup card.
- BASE
- what the unit “should” produce — its members' individual profiles, added up
- CHEM
- observed share minus base: the whole vs. the sum of the parts
- PROJ
- base + chem — the model's expectation if the unit stays together
- TICK
- the hairline on each bar marks 50% — the break-even line
- Lines recovered from MoneyPuck lines.csv (5on5, observed deployment); chemistry = observed xG% minus additive archetype base. Model-estimated.
- 01Yanni Gourde – Oliver Bjorkstrand – Pontus HolmbergTogether this unit controls play outright — 69% of expected goals, 17 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.79 min together 52 +17 → proj 6969.0%· obs.
- 02Anthony Cirelli – Brandon Hagel – Gage GoncalvesTogether this unit controls play outright — 68% of expected goals, 10 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.64 min together 58 +10 → proj 6868.0%· obs.
- 03Nikita Kucherov – Jake Guentzel – Brayden PointTogether this unit plays about even — 48% of expected goals, 5 points WORSE than the talent predicts — worse together than apart.220 min together 53 -5 → proj 4848.0%· obs.
- 01Erik Cernak – Charle-Edouard D'AstousTogether this unit controls play outright — 60% of expected goals, 27 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.227 min together 33 +27 → proj 6060.0%· obs.
- 02Darren Raddysh – J.J. MoserTogether this unit controls play outright — 58% of expected goals, 24 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.882 min together 34 +24 → proj 5858.0%· obs.
- 03Max Crozier – Declan CarlileTogether this unit controls play outright — 55% of expected goals, 24 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.250 min together 32 +24 → proj 5555.0%· obs.