The Line Lab
Which trios actually work when they're on the ice together. We compare what a line shouldproduce given who's on it against what it actually produces — the difference is chemistry. Every unit below really played together at 5-on-5; nothing is hypothetical.
How to read this
Nothing here is invented: every line and pair below actually played together at 5-on-5, with real minutes attached. For each unit we show its observed — the slice of scoring chances it controlled while on the ice, where 50% means break-even.
The interesting part is the split. We first compute an : what those players should produce together if a line were just the sum of its parts. Whatever the real unit does beyond that is the — the closest a spreadsheet gets to measuring whether three players actually fit. Small-minute units are noisy, so read a big bonus on 30 minutes as a hypothesis, not a verdict — and remember this is a model estimate, not the coach's lineup card.
- BASE
- what the unit “should” produce — its members' individual profiles, added up
- CHEM
- observed share minus base: the whole vs. the sum of the parts
- PROJ
- base + chem — the model's expectation if the unit stays together
- TICK
- the hairline on each bar marks 50% — the break-even line
- Lines recovered from MoneyPuck lines.csv (5on5, observed deployment); chemistry = observed xG% minus additive archetype base. Model-estimated.
- 01Evander Kane – Elias Pettersson – Drew O'ConnorTogether this unit controls play outright — 64% of expected goals, 18 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.70 min together 46 +18 → proj 6464.0%· obs.
- 02Linus Karlsson – Arshdeep Bains – Max SassonTogether this unit tilts the ice — 54% of expected goals, 8 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.103 min together 46 +8 → proj 5454.0%· obs.
- 03Brock Boeser – Marco Rossi – Liam OhgrenTogether this unit gets buried territorially — 33% of expected goals, 5 points WORSE than the talent predicts — worse together than apart.143 min together 38 -5 → proj 3333.0%· obs.
- 01Marcus Pettersson – Filip HronekTogether this unit tilts the ice — 52% of expected goals, 28 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.387 min together 24 +28 → proj 5252.0%· obs.
- 02Elias Pettersson – Tom WillanderTogether this unit gets buried territorially — 35% of expected goals, 15 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.165 min together 20 +15 → proj 3535.0%· obs.
- 03Victor Mancini – Zeev BuiumTogether this unit gets buried territorially — 32% of expected goals, 12 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.98 min together 20 +12 → proj 3232.0%· obs.