The Line Lab
Which trios actually work when they're on the ice together. We compare what a line shouldproduce given who's on it against what it actually produces — the difference is chemistry. Every unit below really played together at 5-on-5; nothing is hypothetical.
How to read this
Nothing here is invented: every line and pair below actually played together at 5-on-5, with real minutes attached. For each unit we show its observed — the slice of scoring chances it controlled while on the ice, where 50% means break-even.
The interesting part is the split. We first compute an : what those players should produce together if a line were just the sum of its parts. Whatever the real unit does beyond that is the — the closest a spreadsheet gets to measuring whether three players actually fit. Small-minute units are noisy, so read a big bonus on 30 minutes as a hypothesis, not a verdict — and remember this is a model estimate, not the coach's lineup card.
- BASE
- what the unit “should” produce — its members' individual profiles, added up
- CHEM
- observed share minus base: the whole vs. the sum of the parts
- PROJ
- base + chem — the model's expectation if the unit stays together
- TICK
- the hairline on each bar marks 50% — the break-even line
- Lines recovered from MoneyPuck lines.csv (5on5, observed deployment); chemistry = observed xG% minus additive archetype base. Model-estimated.
- 01Brandon Duhaime – Hendrix Lapierre – Ethen FrankTogether this unit controls play outright — 67% of expected goals, 16 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.94 min together 51 +16 → proj 6767.0%· obs.
- 02Tom Wilson – Aliaksei Protas – Justin SourdifTogether this unit controls play outright — 61% of expected goals, 12 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.243 min together 49 +12 → proj 6161.0%· obs.
- 03Alex Ovechkin – Dylan Strome – Anthony BeauvillierTogether this unit controls play outright — 55% of expected goals, 4 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.405 min together 51 +4 → proj 5555.0%· obs.
- 04Pierre-Luc Dubois – Connor McMichael – Ryan LeonardTogether this unit tilts the ice — 54% of expected goals, 9 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.61 min together 45 +9 → proj 5454.0%· obs.
- 01Trevor van Riemsdyk – Martin FehrvryTogether this unit controls play outright — 56% of expected goals, 27 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.149 min together 28 +27 → proj 5656.0%· obs.
- 02Matt Roy – Jakob ChychrunTogether this unit controls play outright — 55% of expected goals, 25 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.638 min together 30 +25 → proj 5555.0%· obs.