The Line Lab
Which trios actually work when they're on the ice together. We compare what a line shouldproduce given who's on it against what it actually produces — the difference is chemistry. Every unit below really played together at 5-on-5; nothing is hypothetical.
How to read this
Nothing here is invented: every line and pair below actually played together at 5-on-5, with real minutes attached. For each unit we show its observed — the slice of scoring chances it controlled while on the ice, where 50% means break-even.
The interesting part is the split. We first compute an : what those players should produce together if a line were just the sum of its parts. Whatever the real unit does beyond that is the — the closest a spreadsheet gets to measuring whether three players actually fit. Small-minute units are noisy, so read a big bonus on 30 minutes as a hypothesis, not a verdict — and remember this is a model estimate, not the coach's lineup card.
- BASE
- what the unit “should” produce — its members' individual profiles, added up
- CHEM
- observed share minus base: the whole vs. the sum of the parts
- PROJ
- base + chem — the model's expectation if the unit stays together
- TICK
- the hairline on each bar marks 50% — the break-even line
- Lines recovered from MoneyPuck lines.csv (5on5, observed deployment); chemistry = observed xG% minus additive archetype base. Model-estimated.
- 01Gustav Nyquist – Nino Niederreiter – Vladislav NamestnikovTogether this unit controls play outright — 64% of expected goals, 18 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.62 min together 46 +18 → proj 6464.0%· obs.
- 02Adam Lowry – Gabriel Vilardi – Cole PerfettiTogether this unit controls play outright — 58% of expected goals, 9 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.227 min together 49 +9 → proj 5858.0%· obs.
- 03Mark Scheifele – Kyle Connor – Alex IafalloTogether this unit plays about even — 50% of expected goals, 4 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.453 min together 46 +4 → proj 5050.0%· obs.
- 01Dylan Samberg – Elias SalomonssonTogether this unit controls play outright — 55% of expected goals, 26 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.336 min together 29 +26 → proj 5555.0%· obs.
- 02Dylan DeMelo – Josh MorrisseyTogether this unit plays about even — 51% of expected goals, 22 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.1037 min together 29 +22 → proj 5151.0%· obs.
- 03Haydn Fleury – Jacob BrysonTogether this unit gets buried territorially — 39% of expected goals, 15 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.109 min together 24 +15 → proj 3939.0%· obs.