The Line Lab
Which trios actually work when they're on the ice together. We compare what a line shouldproduce given who's on it against what it actually produces — the difference is chemistry. Every unit below really played together at 5-on-5; nothing is hypothetical.
How to read this
Nothing here is invented: every line and pair below actually played together at 5-on-5, with real minutes attached. For each unit we show its observed — the slice of scoring chances it controlled while on the ice, where 50% means break-even.
The interesting part is the split. We first compute an : what those players should produce together if a line were just the sum of its parts. Whatever the real unit does beyond that is the — the closest a spreadsheet gets to measuring whether three players actually fit. Small-minute units are noisy, so read a big bonus on 30 minutes as a hypothesis, not a verdict — and remember this is a model estimate, not the coach's lineup card.
- BASE
- what the unit “should” produce — its members' individual profiles, added up
- CHEM
- observed share minus base: the whole vs. the sum of the parts
- PROJ
- base + chem — the model's expectation if the unit stays together
- TICK
- the hairline on each bar marks 50% — the break-even line
- Lines recovered from MoneyPuck lines.csv (5on5, observed deployment); chemistry = observed xG% minus additive archetype base. Model-estimated.
- 01Mikko Rantanen – Wyatt Johnston – Justin HryckowianTogether this unit controls play outright — 68% of expected goals, 19 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.76 min together 49 +19 → proj 6868.0%· obs.
- 02Roope Hintz – Jason Robertson – Mavrik BourqueTogether this unit controls play outright — 67% of expected goals, 9 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.206 min together 58 +9 → proj 6767.0%· obs.
- 03Radek Faksa – Adam Erne – Oskar BckTogether this unit controls play outright — 57% of expected goals, 10 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.65 min together 47 +10 → proj 5757.0%· obs.
- 04Jamie Benn – Matt Duchene – Sam SteelTogether this unit tilts the ice — 53% of expected goals, 9 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.156 min together 44 +9 → proj 5353.0%· obs.
- 01Esa Lindell – Thomas HarleyTogether this unit controls play outright — 59% of expected goals, 29 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.111 min together 31 +29 → proj 5959.0%· obs.
- 02Ilya Lyubushkin – Lian BichselTogether this unit tilts the ice — 52% of expected goals, 26 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.137 min together 26 +26 → proj 5252.0%· obs.
- 03Alexander Petrovic – Kyle CapobiancoTogether this unit tilts the ice — 52% of expected goals, 25 points better than these players' profiles predict. Real chemistry.136 min together 27 +25 → proj 5252.0%· obs.